|Frost & Sullivan Research Service||Published: 22 Mar 2012|
This Frost & Sullivan research service titled 2011 Original Equipment Manufacturers Strategies for Passenger Vehicle Engine Downsizing in Western Europe provides market trends, supplier orientation and OEM preference. In this research, Frost & Sullivan's expert analysts thoroughly examine the following: engine downsizing, average engine displacement, turbocharging and gasoline direct injection.
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Engine Downsizing Set for Increased Penetration across Gasoline Engines
Engine downsizing, which has been a major trend in European diesel engines over the past decade, is poised to have a major impact on gasoline engines, which will witness the trend that diesel engines did in terms of engine downsizing and turbocharging 10 years ago. This trend will also have a positive impact on the demand for technologies supporting downsizing such as turbochargers and variable valvetrain.
“Due to comparatively lower CO2 emissions, diesel engines will not face a challenge in complying with CO2 limits; hence, the limitations in downsizing diesel engines will not be an issue,” notes the analyst of this research. “Reducing the level of downsizing will also help control NOx emissions from these engines, which are being tightened for Euro 6 (to be enforced in 2014).” The number of cylinders in gasoline engines is likely to decrease only for engines below 1.2 litres. About 35-38 per cent of gasoline engines are likely to be turbocharged by 2018. This high level of turbocharging by European OEMs is likely to help in market growth of boosting technologies. Legal regulations and end-consumer environmental awareness will motivate the sales of vehicles with small engines. For example, the car scrappage schemes in 2009 reduced the average displacement of engines in Western Europe. Such initiatives will help boost engine downsizing.
Engine Downsizing Could Potentially Increase Costs in Cases Where Additional Technologies are Used
The addition of supporting technologies such as turbochargers and variable valvetrain technologies are expected to drive costs and this is likely to impact take-up rates in cost-sensitive segments. Downsizing engines results in lower torque output from the engine and, hence, lower transient response. While variable geometry turbocharging (VGT) is a good solution to improve torque output, introducing VGT at a low cost for gasoline engines will be a challenge. “In diesel engines, aggressive downsizing results in higher specific load and, therefore, increased NOx emissions,” explains the analyst. “This, in turn, will have an effect on cost as NOx after-treatment technologies such as SCR are expensive.”
OEMs are likely to experience higher sales of low CO2 emitting vehicles and thus pass on the tax benefits to the end-consumer. This offers excellent scope for selling low emission models such as Ford Focus, Volkswagen Polo, Volkswagen Golf and Opel/Vauxhall Corsa. “With improved emissions and performance, without drop in fuel economy, being the key drivers, engine downsizing is all set to have a major impact towards achieving emissions of <120 g/km CO2 in two-thirds of new car sales by 2016,” concludes the analyst.
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|Table Of Contents|
1. Executive Summary
1.1 Average Engine Displacement of Cars Sold in EU-15 and Sales of Low CO2 Emission Vehicles
1.2 Comparison of Average Engine Displacements and CO2 Emissions
1.3 Average Engine Displacement of Cars Sold in EU-15—by Country
1.4 Diesel Engine Penetration Analysis
1.5 Powertrain Production Mix across OEMs
1.6 Conclusions and Strategic Recommendations for OEMs
2. Engine Downsizing Trends in Western Europe
2.1 Key Challenges Involved in Engine Downsizing for OEMs
2.2 Market Drivers and Restraints for Engine Downsizing
2.3 Comparative Analysis of Emission Regulations across Regions
2.4 Comparative Analysis of Incentives and Legislation across Countries
2.5 Green House Gas Reduction/Fuel Economy Regulation
2.6 Global Powertrain Mix by Fuels
2.7 European LCV CO2 Banding
2.8 CO2 Segment-wise Weighted Average—Forecast for 2015
2.9 OEM Snapshot—Engine Downsizing
2.10 Comparison of Fuel Consumption for Key VW Models across Europe and United States
2.11 Key Technologies for OEMs towards Euro 6 Compliance—Cost vs. CO2 Benefit
2.12 Scenario Analysis for Engine Downsizing
2.13 Gasoline-Boosting Technologies
2.14 Diesel-Boosting Technologies
2.15 Downsizing Trends—Forecasts by OEM
2.16 Conclusions and Strategic Recommendations
3. Downsizing of Gasoline Engines
3.1 Downsizing Trends in Gasoline Engines
3.2 Scenario Analysis for Downsizing in Gasoline Engines
3.3 Downsizing Trends in Gasoline Engines—Forecasts by Segment
4. Downsizing of Diesel Engines
4.1 Downsizing Trends in Diesel Engines
4.2 Scenario Analysis for Downsizing in Diesel Engines
4.3 Downsizing Trends in Diesel Engines—Forecasts by Segment
5. Strategies Adopted for Engine Downsizing by OEMs 55
5.5 General Motors (Opel/Vauxhall)
5.6 PSA Group
5.8 Volkswagen Group (Audi, Seat, Skoda and Volkswagen)
5.9 Conclusions and Strategic Recommendations for OEMs
5.10 Conclusions and Strategic Recommendations for Suppliers
6. Certification and Disclaimer
7.1 List of Acronyms Used in the Research Service
8. About Frost & Sullivan
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