By Sowmya Srinath, Senior Analyst, Healthcare EIA
Swine flu is a highly contagious respiratory disease originating in pigs. These strains when transferred to humans, can cause influenza like symptoms and be life threatening in severe cases.
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), some new cases in humans are spreading from human-to-human transmission. It spreads when an infected person coughs or sneezes and the droplets that come out get dispersed into the surrounding air. By breathing this infected air, or by touching any contaminated surfaces such as door handles or other objects, individuals can acquire the infection. According to certain studies, it is believed that people may actually be contagious from the day preceeding the onset of symptoms to around 7 days after they actually get sick. It is also important to note that children are expected to remain contagious for longer periods opf time.
To date in 2009, according to WHO reporting, people in 29 countries have been infected with the H1N1 strain of Swine flu virus, with the U.S and Mexico being the worst affected. We have had several such threatening epidemics in the last few years.
The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003 was one of the most threatening epidemic respiratory diseases affecting 26 countries. From November 2002 till March 2003 as many as 8000 people were afflicted with SARS and other related infections. It spread quite rapidly even affecting health workers. As the most effective treatment and infection control measures were not ascertained during the crucial period, several people were infected before control measures were put in place.
It is to be noted that most pathogenic viruses affecting human beings have originated in animals and jumped to humans and they account for 60% of all infectious diseases, and 75% of all emerging infections.
Thus during potential pandemic outbreaks, three things are of prime importance: diagnosis, treatment and prevention. If vaccines are a major focus as a treatment option, devices like face masks, gloves, gowns, sterilisation and disinfection products are vital for prevention.
During such pandemics and epidemics, fear of infection is the major reason for the uptake and growth of these devices segments. The best example is the use of face masks. Face masks don't directly prevent people from being infected, but it does reduce the risk of infection. With the use of certain facemasks and N95 respirators, people can prevent large infected droplets from reaching them, thus reducing the risk of infection. N95 respirators, when fitted properly can filter out 97 per cent of all virus-like particles, according to studies.
Swine Flu has resulted in a certain degree of psychological panic in the population indirectly resulting in an increased demand for these disposable products. It is estimated that during the SARS outbreak in 2003, the disposable medical items demand rose almost 20 percent in the U.S. In fact in the U.S., few of the major players like 3M Co. and Kimberly Clarke- Corp have already reacted to the Swine Flu scare by increasing the production of their tight- fittings masks like N95 Respirators.
These viruses can thrive on both hard and soft surfaces, thus increasing the risk of infection through contact with infected surfaces. Flu viruses and other germs can live two hours or longer on hard environmental surfaces like tables, doorknobs, and desks. Thus the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and other health organizations recommend washing hands as an effective way of preventing the spread. The risk of contamination or cross contamination has led to the increased use of gloves.
Industry estimates that medical gloves market in general has been growing at about 10 per cent year on year and whenever there are any outbreaks of disease the demand for these products increases. Top Glove a leading manufacturer of gloves has increased its productions now, and believes that the global demand for gloves could potentially increase by 5 percent due to Swine flu, if it was as threatening as the SARS outbreak of 2003.
On similar lines, it is important to know that during the SARS outbreak, 20 % of the cases required critical care, thus increasing the demand for ventilators, and other respiratory aids. In the worst case scenario of swine flu, the U.S government estimates nearly 10 million patients could be admitted in hospitals, and almost 1.5 million people would need intensive care. The demand for mechanical ventilators might increase as almost 750,000 of this afflicted target population would require breathing support. According to the American Association for respiratory care, the requirement for ventilator support can substantially increase if the disease spreads in the population. It is believed that the U.S. centers for Disease Control and Prevention's strategic national stock pile owns more than 6,000 mechanical ventilators (2006 data), though this number is not adequate to treat pandemics like swine flue in a worst case scenario.
According to the Department of Health and Human Services, in 2008, the surgical masks segment witnessed volume sales of around 3.8 billion units, with 90 % of it coming from Asia. During a pandemic flu outbreak, they believe there would be demand for almost 26.9 billion surgical masks, wherein the stock pile represents only 0.2 percent of the demand.
Similarly for N95 respirators, DHHS believes that there are 900 million units available every year, of which 25-30 % are imported and 10-20% are added to the stock pile. Despite this, they have estimated that during a pandemic flu outbreak, the U.S might need as many as 5.3 billion respirators.
This shortfall has led to the DHHS adding another 73 million N95 respirators to the National stock pile and orders in place for another 32 million, while in the case of surgical masks, they added 37.4 million and ordered 14 million more. But this would still leave huge deficits in a worst case scenario. While the scenario is alarming, various governments would be able to handle the outbreak if appropriate steps are continuously taken to control the spread of the virus.
In Britain, according to the Department of Health, it was predicted that almost 1.2 million people could be hospitalized and 750,000 killed if the swine flu pandemic spread out of control. According to a Department of Health document seen by The Daily telegraph it was estimated that almost 30 million people could get influenza in such a scenario. The available stock pile of ventilators is so low that it would require 10 times the existing number to treat all the patients. The Department of Health has definitely taken immediate action by ordering 32 million face masks in the U.K, to reduce the risks, despite concerns that masks do little to prevent spread of flu. It is expected to beef up the stock pile, when the scenario worsens.
It is not just ventilators, masks and gloves, but also disinfectants that play a crucial role in prevention. It is advisable to disinfect the environment at frequent intervals, with CDC / approved disinfectants. As already mentioned, disinfectants reduce the risk of infection especially in hospital environments and other public places like airports, trains etc where the risk of infection is high.
Thus in conclusion, with the WHO having increased the global alert status of Swine Flu to level 5, it's given manufacturers a stronger reason to boost up their production and meet the growing demand and help the world prepare for the fight against the Swine flu pandemic.
