Indian Commercial Vehicles (CV) Market, Forecast to 2022

Implementation of Bharat Stage-IV to Negatively Impact CV Demand in FY2018; Demand to Reach New Heights in FY2020
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Published: 11 Aug 2017

This study involves a unique methodology of analysis of various end-use application segments in commercial vehicles, their usage pattern, replacement cycles, and expected growth in the end-use industry, coupled with Mega Trends such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, urbanization, changing safety and emission norms, new tax reforms, changing trends in the usage pattern, and the resultant effect on the demand of commercial vehicles across the Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW) range. The scope of the study includes commercial vehicle goods carriers (excluding 3W) and passenger carriers (excluding cars and vans) as defined by the Society of Indian Automobiles Manufacturers (SIAM). For goods carriers, the various end-use industry sectors that drive the demand for commercial vehicles include cement, Petroleum, Oil, and Lubricants (POL), Steel, mining, construction material, agriculture, Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG), Fast Moving Consumer Durables (FMCD), automobiles, import-export containers, and market load. For the passenger carrier segment, the various end-user applications include school, staff, tourist, intra-city, and intercity buses. Total Units in Operation (UIO) for all the above end-user applications have been estimated. Estimated growth in end-use applications, coupled with vehicle replacement patterns in each segment, is used to estimate the demand in each segment. Apart from end-use applications, the Indian commercial vehicle industry is also affected by a number of factors as follows which are used to further iterate the demand for commercial vehicles. • One of the fastest growing GDPs in the world, leading to higher demand for goods and services • Changing safety and emission regulations with the country moving to Bharat Stage-IV (Euro IV) norms in April 2017 affecting the purchase cost of vehicles • Implementation of the Goods and Service Tax (GST) in July 2017 which effectively makes the whole of India a single market with no state barriers or differential taxation • Increasing restrictions on overloading, thereby, increasing the demand for higher GVW vehicles • Mega Trends such as urbanization, which is increasing the demand for last-mile connectivity Key questions this study will answer are as follows • Historic analysis of the commercial vehicles industry in India from FY2009 to FY2016 • Key participants in the industry and their market shares for FY2016 and FY2017 • Market shares of various participants in each segment categories of Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV) and Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles (MHCV) • End-user demand drivers of commercial vehicles in India • Estimated impact of each application segment in the demand for commercial vehicles • Impact of Mega Trends and how it will impact the growth of commercial vehicles • GVW-wise forecast of commercial vehicles, including goods carriers and passenger carriers till FY2022 • Year-on-year forecast of all segment from FY2018 to FY2022

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