In today’s make-or-break innovation environment, many organizations struggle to navigate early-stage, highly uncertain opportunities. Too often, companies fall into the trap of over-committing to ideas that look promising on paper but collapse under market realities. The problem isn’t a lack of ambition – it’s a lack of structured decision-making in the face of uncertainty. A strategic, decision-focused approach changes the game.
Many innovation efforts stall because teams build overly polished and precise business cases based on assumptions that haven’t been validated. Executives are expected to greenlight investments grounded more in hope than rigorous insight.
The result?
Inflated projections, low hit rates, and missed opportunities. Or worse – innovators avoid creating business cases altogether, making it nearly impossible to secure funding when the stakes rise.
Through our work with leading companies, we’ve seen better results from a different approach. Instead of focusing on easily gathered data to show “progress,” high-performing teams succeed by systematically identifying and reducing the key uncertainties that drive business case outcomes. When teams adopt a learning mindset instead of an execution mindset, they tackle the most uncertain and influential issues first. This builds confidence in the business case and enables smarter, faster investment decisions.
“Most people think innovation is about creativity. But at the organizational level, it’s about learning fast and making smart investment decisions under uncertainty.” — David Matheson, President and CEO of SmartOrg
How to make smarter decisions with early-stage innovation opportunities
You have to start by quantifying the opportunity. “Going with your gut” won’t cut it in ambiguous situations. Instead, apply a decision-science lens. Incorporate assumption ranges – high, low, and best estimate – into your business case. This allows you to identify which variables most affect the potential value. Use Tornado Diagrams to visualize upside potential and downside risk. These tools expose where uncertainty lives – both at the project and business case factor level – bringing much-needed transparency to the process. With this clarity, conversations with stakeholders shift. Instead of debating assumptions, you can align around the learning required to reduce uncertainty – and make confident calls to advance or kill a project.
“When teams shift from ’proving’ their ideas to ‘improving’ them, everything changes. Stakeholder alignment is crystallized, and you unlock growth that was hidden in plain sight.” — Doug Williams, Associate Director, Innovation, SmartOrg
Too many innovation initiatives fail because neglect the right kind of learning – the kind that builds confidence in the business case. A decision-science approach reframes early-stage innovation as an opportunity to learn, align, and prioritize.
By focusing on the uncertainties that matter most, organizations not only improve their innovation outcomes but also strengthen their capability to manage future investments.
SmartOrg has run a series of workshops that generated powerful “a-ha!” moments for innovation leaders — moments that put them on the path to converting uncertainty into opportunity.
To learn more, download our latest workshop deck and project de-risking workbook!
Doug Williams is an innovation industry veteran, having helped over 80 organizations build and grow innovation programs during his time as professional services director at Planview Spigit, analyst at Forrester Research, and in his current role as Associate Director, Innovation at SmartOrg. An engaging speaker, facilitator, and a committed partner to customer success, he helps clients achieve their desired outcomes through a combination of listening, challenging orthodoxies, and building collaborative partnerships. Outside of work, Doug is a drummer in an alternative rock cover band and enjoys seeing live music, traveling, and cooking. Find him on LinkedIn.
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