In April 2015, the Narendra Modi government set a mammoth target of increasing India’s exports to $900 billion by 2020
To reach $900 billion by 2020, India will need annual export growth between 15% and 20%. Export growth has not been positive so far and may not be positive in immediate quarters. India’s merchandise export growth has been negative since September 2015.
Lower demand for imports and weak global economy: The World Trade Organization cut its global trade growth estimate for 2015 to 2.8% from 3%. For 2016, the estimate was lowered to 3.9% from 4%.
In 2015, petroleum product exports fell by 52%, which accounted for 18.8% of the total exports. Engineering goods, which constituted 21.9% of the total exports, saw a drop of 11%. Gems and jewelry, the third-largest export component (13% of total exports), declined 7%.
In the next 3-plus years, if things improve, India might hit 50% of the incremental target. This translates to exports worth between $600 billion and $650 billion by 2020, a gap of $250-$300 billion vis-à-vis target.
